At https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I8-LR-uA6jvN0yRs-VERgB_m9FMGfuzj/view?usp=sharing, starting at 2:33:39. The quoted remark is at 2:34:15. The speaker, William Flock, is listed as “Director” on the Jacobsen | Daniels website, and was identified (at 40:11 of https://drive.google.com/file/d/10vyIQ-p1MLLCQ9CXdyAs4kn8W4dg1tSO/view, 20 April 2023 brief to AAB) as “the forecaster” by Jacobsen | Daniels co-owner and ALP / Fleet Mix Study Project Manager Brad Jacobsen. We erroneously attributed the quotation to Mr. Jacobsen and have posted a correction. We did not correct references to “the County’s top aviation technical consultant” that did not name a person, because that consultant is the firm Jacobsen | Daniels. Please see the posted correction under aspenflyright.org’s “Corrections” tab for additional details.
Mr. Flock did say last October, and we accurately quoted, that “I think everyone on this call here agrees that the CRJ-700 is going to be flying for the next 20 or 30 years, that it’s not going away.” That appears to be a forecast, not a statement of potential. As stated on p 7 of our Essay #13, Mr. Jacobsen now asserts that the statement should have indicated mere capability, not prediction. The current (20 April 2023) draft Airport Forecast clearly states another two decades (though it doesn’t go further) as a plausible operating capability for CRJ-700s, which airlines may or may not find it economical to exploit; Jacobsen | Daniels now thinks they probably won’t. That doesn’t change Mr. Flock’s apparent prediction last October. Nothing in the 20 April 2023 draft Forecast indicates any need to change our Essay #4’s facts, logic, or conclusions supporting the prospects of long-term operation of CRJ-700s at Aspen. We now feel even more confident that their risks and uncertainties look lower and more tractable than for the EMB-175LR.
On 5 May 2023, in the fourth-from-last line on p 11 of Essay #4, we corrected consultant Alec Seybold’s name (misspelled Alex). We apologize for this error.